Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 909.827535 1037.832131 1184.134549 1365.211208 1585.381871 1847.116897 2.185934e+03
2024-10-20 707.681230 863.893695 1060.075866 1329.916245 1700.297005 2204.910412 2.970852e+03
2024-10-27 596.847120 756.634597 968.344202 1278.331284 1737.057665 2420.378458 3.579703e+03
2024-11-03 549.105150 720.322109 958.613012 1328.790960 1918.489975 2880.801022 4.722094e+03
2024-11-10 506.596697 683.030542 938.592515 1355.685591 2063.648750 3317.353279 6.005673e+03
2024-11-17 468.480922 646.175060 912.336465 1365.509384 2178.968019 3731.222438 7.445839e+03
2024-11-24 430.886553 605.274580 873.673445 1346.898973 2237.467757 4051.320047 8.851352e+03
2024-12-01 408.759235 585.261460 864.804243 1376.497284 2390.730315 4614.760633 1.125054e+04
2024-12-08 393.899283 574.785535 869.610686 1430.311821 2603.620070 5390.610111 1.493590e+04
2024-12-15 376.105299 557.624166 860.748294 1456.509766 2764.157553 6105.075268 1.918724e+04
2024-12-22 355.433411 533.747169 837.414257 1450.546412 2851.121961 6661.482345 2.352612e+04
2024-12-29 342.463237 521.627779 833.516313 1482.811969 3036.133342 7591.340029 3.115599e+04
2025-01-05 318.719884 489.907533 792.161435 1434.096831 3017.693952 7906.193256 3.623423e+04
2025-01-12 298.595261 463.165255 757.888407 1396.607100 3022.689335 8320.357307 4.314007e+04
2025-01-19 278.428643 434.875984 718.101208 1341.513797 2968.043090 8499.512964 4.890978e+04
2025-01-26 272.632627 431.777538 726.259975 1395.373017 3232.512631 10082.315265 7.404038e+04
2025-02-02 264.462339 423.686735 723.744074 1424.092300 3433.675807 11572.616183 1.088136e+05
2025-02-09 255.076899 412.646025 714.227104 1434.586807 3583.015093 12963.069031 1.568806e+05
2025-02-16 243.551487 396.829322 693.577388 1414.707858 3629.264300 13881.601126 2.091779e+05
2025-02-23 237.559251 391.076558 693.259149 1446.326447 3861.716593 16097.909716 3.563503e+05
2025-03-02 234.064992 389.837172 702.291444 1503.853504 4209.591178 19522.745958 7.714585e+05
2025-03-09 228.314771 383.795772 700.399246 1531.876857 4459.678348 22697.976700 1.705901e+06
2025-03-16 220.324503 372.835234 686.784416 1525.496962 4572.623003 25008.583489 3.547729e+06